A STUDY OF THE POLITICAL ANALYSIS OF ANATOLY KAMINSKI IN THE CONTEXT OF THE RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN WAR

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to identify Anatol Kaminsky’s ideas that may be useful in the modern discourse of the Russian-Ukrainian war that began in 2014. As a result of the study, the following main ideas were revealed, with which he predicted in the 1970s of the twentieth century how the Russian Empire (in its Soviet form) was collapsed in the 80s of this century. According to A. Kaminsky, it was first necessary to force the Central Committee of the CPSU to abandon economic and political totalitarianism. This was achieved by the combination of three factors that led to the economic collapse of the USSR: the Afghan war, the arms race started by Ronald Reagan, and the fall in oil prices. The economic collapse of the USSR made peaceful revolutions possible, which led to the separation of some colonies from the empire in the early 1990s of the twentieth century. Based on the ideas of Anatoly Kaminsky, the following conclusions can be drawn. If we turn to the analysis of the course of the modern Muscovite-Ukrainian war, which began in 2014, the experience of the collapse of the USSR in 1991 confirms the expediency of ending the war by achieving the economic collapse of the Muscovite empire under its modern name «Russian Federation». The modern Muscovite empire (under the name «Russian Federation») holds many colonies under its rule, so reducing its size, depriving it of the resources that it draws from its colonies would lead to the emergence of a smaller country, but such a country, no longer being an empire, could recover and seek directions for its development not in armed expansion against the whole world, but in scientific, technical, economic, cultural progress and increasing the well-being of its citizens. At the same time, in modern conditions, the sooner the war ends, the more important it is to end it, given that the longer the war lasts, the longer the process of the Muscovite empire using assistance from the PRC will last, which will inevitably be accompanied by the increasing dependence of the Russian Federation on China. It is obvious that it is better for a number of independent countries to emerge on the territory of the Russian Federation than for China to gradually swallow up these territories, whose behavior in the absence of effective counterweights may become unpredictable.