TRAJECTORY OF CHANGES IN CONTEMPORARY POLITICAL CONFLICTS (THE CASE OF UKRAINE)

Abstract

The article is dedicated to the study of contemporary political conflicts, analyzing their diversity, conditions, and causes. The authors examine the theoretical basis of the research, highlighting the types and specifics of modern conflicts. It is noted that modern globalization has practically made it impossible for individual states to resolve global contradictions in isolation. The multitude of causes behind today’s conflicts leads to an increase in the number of interested parties, who, in pursuing their own interests, may provide informal support to one of the conflict parties. This, in fact, leads to a potential increase in the number of conflict actors. The authors emphasize that achieving full consensus on conflict resolution is quite problematic in today’s world. Usually, there is a transition from one state to another, with changes in form, nature, types, the composition of actors, goals, and priorities. As a result, the level of global tension does not subside but instead moves the political system into a state of permanent turbulence. Attention is drawn to the fact that conflicts are present in almost every country, but not all of them are in an active phase. Significant attention in the research is given to monitoring the level of violent conflicts around the world. Based on data from the ACLED Conflict Index, the authors review 50 places with the most intense conflicts, which vary in intensity, frequency, and form, and their levels are classified as “extreme," “high," and “turbulent." Special attention is given to the military-political conflict in Ukraine. The dynamics of Ukraine’s position in the global ranking of violent conflicts over the past year are traced. It has been found that the trajectory of changes in the militarypolitical conflict in Ukraine over the past year shows a worsening of the situation. The temporary success is due to the stagnation of the conflict and its transition to an exhaustion phase, as well as the continued escalation of conflicts in other countries.