POLICY OF «STRATEGIC NEUTRALITY» TOWARDS INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE: THE REACTION OF THE COUNTRIES OF THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA TO THE FULLSCALE WAR

Abstract

The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the essence, factors, and geopolitical consequences of the policy of «strategic neutrality» of the countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regarding international support for Ukraine. It has been proven that this position is not a temporary maneuver, but a deeply rational and differentiated hedging strategy, which seeks to strengthen their role as political actors and distance themselves from the logic of the Western bloc confrontation. This course adopted by the BSPA countries is also a direct consequence of the Kremlin's many years of efforts to restore the status of a regional mediator and maintain ideological closeness with local autocracies. The study focuses on the bifurcating impact of the war, which caused the food crisis, but at the same time opened up strategic opportunities: the use of energy leverage (OPEC+) and the functional transformation of a number of states (UAE, Turkey) into hubs to circumvent international sanctions. Key factors of neutrality include: the priority of regional threats (the Iranian factor), economic benefit, and the ideological factor of the «double standards» of the West. Special attention is paid to the fact that the Persian Gulf monarchies (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar) have turned their neutrality into a «positive» soft power tool, providing significant financial assistance and successfully mediating the prisoner exchange process, thereby increasing their global legitimacy. It was established that the MENA's neutrality is a sign of the transition to a multipolar world and paradoxically did not stop the export of the Russian-Ukrainian confrontation to North Africa (the activities of the PMC «Wagner»/«African Corps»). Based on the analysis of four key scenarios (economic involvement, political conversion, geostrategic partnership, diplomatic dividends), practical recommendations were developed. Thus, the strategic position of the MENA countries requires innovative political, diplomatic, and economic solutions from Ukraine, which should transform the appeal to values into specific, mutually beneficial security and economic proposals, which is the only effective way to transform their pragmatic neutrality into sustainable international support.