FORECASTING SOCIAL PROCESSES IN THE ACTIVITIES OF SOCIAL WORK SPECIALISTS

Abstract

The article examines the problem of forecasting social processes in the activities of social work professionals as a necessary condition for increasing the effectiveness of social policy and the quality of social services. The relevance of the topic is due to dynamic socio-economic transformations, the growth of social risks and the need for a timely response to new challenges in society. The purpose of the article is to theoretically substantiate the essence of forecasting social processes and determine its place in the professional activities of social workers. The study of this problem in the scientific and theoretical literature by foreign and domestic scientists was investigated. Scientific approaches to the interpretation of the concepts of “social processes”, “forecasting” were analyzed, their main characteristics (dynamics, multifactorial, systematic) and levels of manifestation – macro-, meso- and micro-levels were determined. Social processes are characterized by: social changes, mass, multifactorial, controllability and predictability. The stages of forecasting are outlined, in particular: problem definition, information collection and analysis, method selection, scenario building, risk assessment, management decision-making and monitoring of results. Examples of practical application of forecasting in the field of social work are given. It is summarized that the implementation of a forecasting approach ensures the transition from a reactive model of social assistance to a preventive one, contributes to the rational use of resources and increases the effectiveness of social intervention