TRENDS OF CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS AS A FACTOR OF CLIMATE CHANGE INTO THE ATMOSPHERIC AIR OF THE ZHYTOMYR REGION FROM STATIONARY SOURCES AND FORECASTING THEIR VOLUMES
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32782/pcsd-2023-3-7Keywords:
carbon dioxide, climate change, administrative-territorial units, multiplicity of excess, contribution to the regional level, polynomial model of the 2nd degree, forecasting, tendency to decreaseAbstract
The purpose of the study is to highlight and assess the volume of carbon dioxide emissions, as a factor of climate change, into the atmospheric air of the Zhytomyr region from stationary sources for the period 2005–2021, as well as to forecast their volume. Methodology. The materials of the State Statistics Service in the Zhytomyr region became the information base of the research. We evaluated the dynamics of carbon dioxide emissions from stationary sources for the period 2005–2021 in Zhytomyr Oblast as a whole and in its administrative-territorial units; ranked the regression models of emission volumes according to the values of the reliability of the approximation and the value of the total error; carried out a forecast of carbon dioxide emissions from stationary sources. The scientific novelty consists in highlighting the regional trends of emissions of carbon dioxide into the atmospheric air of the Zhytomyr region from stationary sources and forecasting their volumes. Conclusions. Starting from 2005, 11,628.7 thousand tons of carbon dioxide entered the atmospheric air of the Zhytomyr region, and its limit values corresponded to 2005 (236.4 thousand tons) and 2009 (876.2 thousand tons). The volumes of carbon dioxide emissions in 2016-2021 exceeded the level of 2015, and their corresponding values ranged from 111% (2016) to 130% (2018), and in 2021 – 114.9%. An uneven distribution of carbon dioxide emissions from stationary sources of pollution within the administrative territorial units of Zhytomyr region was noted: the minimum values - 0.1 thousand tons - took place in Berdychivskyi (2012), Yemilchynskyi (2012-2014), Luhynskyi (2014), Malinskyi (2016) and Chernyakhivskyi (2010-2012 and 2014) districts and the city of Novograd-Volynskyi (2014) – 21.6 thousand tons, maximum – 92.9 thousand tons - in the Berdychiv district (2014) and in the city of Zhytomyr (2010) – 359.1 thousand tons. The share of districts in the total volume of carbon dioxide emissions in the region was 33.2%, cities – 66.8% (in 2021, the contribution of newly created districts was 15.2% (Berdychivskyi), 48% (Zhytomyrskyi), 20% (Korostenskyi), 16.8% (Novograd-Volynskyi)). During the period 2010-2020, the regional average carbon dioxide emissions exceeded 1.3 to 11.2 times in all cities, with the exception of Novograd-Volynskyi (2014 and 2017) and 1,7 – 3 times in the Novohrad- Volyn district (with the exception of 2010). According to the forecast, in the following periods, the volumes of carbon dioxide emissions from stationary sources into the atmospheric air of the Zhytomyr region will decrease and will amount to 574.7 thousand tons in 2023, 522.5 thousand tons in 2024, and 493.9 thousand tons in 2025.
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