SOCIAL FORECASTING AS A FACTOR IN ASSESSING THE VIABILITY OF A SOCIAL PROJECT

Abstract

The article analyzed social forecasting as a factor in assessing the viability of a social project. It is determined, that social forecasting is the process of scientifically based prediction of future social changes, trends, problems and opportunities in order to develop effective strategies that contribute to solving current problems of our time. In the context of social planning, forecasting allows you to predict scenarios, assess risks, resources and results, as well as justify the implementation of innovations to meet the needs of both individuals and society as a whole. The following methods of social forecasting are named: expert assessment, SWOT analysis, trend analysis, scenario approach and the use of big data (Big Data). The combination of these methods allows you to create multidimensional forecasts that take into account both the direct impact of individual factors and their possible synergistic combination. The author emphasizes, that social forecasting in assessing the viability of a project acts as a tool for assessing the probability of successful implementation of an initiative in a changing social environment; helps identify risks, such as underfunding or low participation, and develop strategies to minimize them, ensuring the sustainability and compliance of the project with external conditions; determines the innovativeness and relevance of the project, assesses its adaptation to challenges and relevance to the audience; provides feedback mechanisms, monitoring and correction, contributing to successful implementation and viability. The article also states, that social forecasting takes into account the unpredictability of the human factor, is based on qualitative assessments and data analysis, but has errors due to dependence on past trends and limitations of methods, which requires careful selection of methods for a specific situation.